Biggie N Pac

Taran Buie History 20
March 21, 2011 Kelly Knight

Transitions in America 1790-1840

In America between 1790 up until 1840 the American republicans were trying to find their way without being under control of England. Like any other time period in American history following independence the colonist had to adjust and take immediate action. I agree with W.J. Rorabaugh when he claimed this fifty year period of the American republic was one of intense transitions, because so much happened that affected the generations to come. This time in America can be look at as Americans going through middle school and high school. I compare these two unlike time periods because they have so much in common when it comes to finding an identity and the changes that take place in pursuit of it.
The consumption of alcohol sky rocketed during these years and played a major role in military, social and even political life and was critical the help mold the founding of the new America. Like middle school and high school you begin to find yourself and start to branch off from you parents. America was in the same situation, newly freed from England it was up to Americans to make every lasting decision. This is when the intense transitions began to take place because there was so many issues to be handled and even more voices trying to be heard in the final decision. Many things can be associated with the transitions America underwent but alcohol and taverns certainly stand out.
Even before the war on independence occurred, taverns were very popular amongst congressmen, solders and other men of high honor. Taverns were almost like secret hideouts for colonist to make internal plots against the English. Patriots viewed public houses as the nurseries of freedom, and that taverns were certainly seed beds of the Revolution, the places where British tyranny was condemned, militiamen organized, and independence plotted (Rorabaugh 35). It was during the fifty years following the War for independence that drinking rum, whiskey, brandy, and gin became a driving force behind the transition of America.
Americans ran to the bottle and began drinking regularly and heavily. Due to this the transition of taverns became a major structure in colonial villages, and the focus of social life. In these small towns the taverns were usually built next to other important structures like courthouses and churches and often aided in their institutional functions. For example, before trials, it was common for defendants, attorneys, judges, and jurymen to gather [in taverns] to drink, and sometime matters were settled out of court. At other times, when a controversial case attracted a crowd, it was necessary to hold the trial in the tavern, which was the only public building roomy enough to accommodate the spectators (Roarbaugh 27). Taverns began to hold almost the same weight as the politicians who conducted business in them because so much of that business was being held at the taverns.
Drinking alcohol also transitioned the social class order. For one, taverns were used to maintain order in the social classes. According to Roarbaugh, village elders imposed a strict licensing system as means of preserving the social order, so that more often than not only ministers, men of authority, and other “men and women of good moral character” could serve as publicans (Roarbaugh 28).


For hundreds of years, in North America, people have had encounters with a creature known as Sasquatch or Bigfoot.? This phenomenon can no longer be dismissed as urban legend or myth.? Bigfoot is a real creature that lives among our forest around the world.
Bigfoot is described as a humanlike or apelike creature, covered with black or brown fur. People in many parts of the United States and Canada, especially in the Pacific Northwest, claim to have seen this creature. Bigfoot is said to be six to nine feet, tall, and very strong. It smells bad and has large feet, about sixteen inches long and seven inches wide. Bigfoot walks upright and eats roots, berries, deer, and elk. It is supposed to be very shy and afraid of people, but curious about them, too.
The Bigfoot creature has many names. Canadians call it the Sasquatch. This word comes from a Native American word for ???hairy giant.??? Some scientists call it Gigantopithecus. Other common names from different cultures around the world include: Wild Man, Admoniable Snowman, Oh-mah-ah, Omah, Meh-Teh, Dzu-Teh, Feifei, Orang- Dalam, Yeh- The, Skunk Ape, Windigo, and Almas.

Some people suggest Bigfoot is actually Pithesanthropus erectus, a species believed to be closely related to humans, but now extinct. Pithesanthropus erectus teeth and fossilized remains have been found and proven to exist. They were large apelike/humanoid creatures. The females were about 7 feet tall and the males 10-12 feet tall and they coexisted with homo erectus for thousands of years. They existed for over 6 million years and only went “extinct” about 100,000 yrs ago. Maybe an evolutionary offshoot that had migrated north survived and is now what we call present day Bigfoot.
For many years Bigfoot was considered to be restricted to the Pacific Northwest. This region was perceived as the only area of North America sufficiently forested and undeveloped to support a population of this species without its members being commonly observed. However, there have been sightings in all 50 states and Canada. Areas in the Midwest, south and east coast have hundreds of sightings but have been treated as local phenomenon. Reports of regional monsters quickly become items of local folklore and, as such, are treated as unscientific and of merely local interest.
For many years, Native American tribes told stories about Bigfoot. Early explorers knew about Bigfoot, as well. The first written report came from an explorer named David Thompson, who wrote about large footprints he found in Alberta, Canada, in 1811. In 1924, a group of miners in Washington reported that they saw some hairy, apelike creatures. They shot at two of them. That night, the miners were trapped in there cabin by a group of creatures that threw rocks and pounded on the doors, walls, and roof. Many scientist say stories about Bigfoot are legends are lies, but many people say they saw something real.
A Canadian reporter and author named John Green began investigating Bigfoot in 1957. Over the years, he interviewed more than three thousand people who claimed to have seen Bigfoot in the wild. Green??™s most famous interview was with a man named Albert Ostman. Ostman told Green that while camping in 1924, he was kidnapped by a group of Bigfeet- and held captive for almost a whole week. Ostman was very frightened by what happened. He kept his secret for more than thirty years. I believe Ostman??™s story to be a lie. There are many things wrong with his story, the first being he would have most likely been camping with someone and they would have noticed him missing and reported it. Ostman would have told someone the story before he told John Green, someone that he knew would have made him famous.
In October 1967, a Bigfoot researcher named Roger Pattinson and his friend, Bob Gimlin, were horseback riding in Bluff Creek, California. They claimed to have seen a creature sitting beside the creek. Patterson said he grabbed his movie camera and filmed the creature as it walked away into the trees. Patterson??™s short movie is the only film ever made of Bigfoot. The film seems to show a female, over six feet tall, with a short neck, sloping forehead, long arms, and powerful legs. The film they shot became one of the most famous pieces of footage in Bigfoot history. Even the experts can??™t agree on the film??™s authenticity.

The Patterson Footage has never been debunked as a hoax. No one has ever demonstrated how it was done. Neither the ???original costume???, nor a matching costume, has ever been presented by honest skeptics, nor by various imposters who have claim to worn the costume. Large amounts of money have been spent trying to make a matching costume. The best Hollywood costume design talents have been brought to the task, but never succeeded. The British Broadcasting Corporation spent the most money so far. They failed miserably. Every attempt and failure to make a similar costume strengthens the authenticity of the Patterson footage.

People who believe in Bigfoot say that footprints are the best evidence to prove that the creature exists. In 1958, a man named Jerry Crew found lots of very large footprints near his bulldozer in Willow Creek, California. Examining the prints, it seemed as if the creature had been looking at the bulldozer. Crew made casts of the prints. Many other footprints have been found over the ears in Washington, Oregon, and western Canada. Some of the most interesting were found in Walla Walla, Washington in 1982. These footprints showed dermal ridges. Only humans and primates have dermal, ridges, which are found on fingers and the soles of feet.

Using apples and melons as bait, members of the Bigfoot Field Researches Organization claim to have captured the first partial body cast of a Washington State Sasquatch. Positioned at the center of a mud puddle in the Skookum Meadows of Gifford Pinchot National Forest, not far from Mount Saint Helen??™s, the tasty snack allegedly convinced a full- grown creature to lie at the puddles edge and feast. Deep impressions of a hair- covered hip, elbow, heel, wrist, and even buttocks were left in the mud. Hours after the creature left the team captured the imprints in a plaster cast, now known as the Skookum Cast. Some of the hairs on the cast come from a primate that has never been identified.

Most scientists do not believe in the existence of Bigfoot, even though many people claim to have seen it, and many footprints have been found. Scientist want real proof, and are offering a million dollar reward for it. They want someone to trap, a live Bigfoot, or they want someone to find the body, skeleton, or skull of a dead Bigfoot.

Bigfoot is real, there are to many pictures and casts to disprove that. The Patterson Footage is also no hoax, and shows a real Bigfoot. No matter how hard you try, you will never be able to fully disprove Bigfoot??™s existence in our world.

???Big World??™ and ???Gran Torino??™


Journeys offer opportunities to a certain extent depending on the type of journey an individual is on. Journeys can also uncover new perspective of life, these are reasons for people undertaking a journey, but in some cases these reasons are not the cause as to why they undertake a journey, it may be because of ignorance or entrapment. None of these opportunities would arise or be taken without him or her accepting the prospect of these opportunities, after all it is their attitude towards the opportunities that establish the outcome whether it be positive or negative. Many of these themes and aspects of journey are displayed Tim Winton??™s ???Big World??™ and also Clint Eastwood??™s movie ???Gran Torino??™.

The short story ???Big World??™ by Tim Winton is a physical journey of two boys who decide that they are quitting there jobs, packing up and moving. Through the story they realise the amount of opportunities that are passing them while they are living in Angelus. Through ???Biggie??™ the author displays a state of ignorance that desensitises the boys to opportunities and chances. They do not realise the chances that are passing them by in the town of Angelus. When they pack up and move they realise what they have been missing out on. Throughout their journey they are able to gain a new appreciation for the life they could have, they are given opportunities to learn to recognise opportunities

Biggie and the Narrator realised that life in Angelus was not for them, they were happy whilst on the road in their VW, they didn??™t have to worry about work or school all of that was behind them, they realised that they are doing what they wanted. They discovered this through there journey, if they had never left their town of Angelus they would be still stuck in the meatworks packing meat in to boxes and would not know what the outside world is like. Through the journey they are able to realise that they enjoy travelling rather then being tied down in one place. Their journey provided opportunity for learning more about themselves.

After finishing school and finding themselves a job hosing blood and guts off the floors at a meatworks, Biggie and the Narrator come to realise the true harshness of adult work and discover how comparatively easy their lives had been up to that point. Winton writes ???Biggie and me, heading to work every morning in a frigid wind in the January of our new lives, still in jeans and boots and flannel shirts, with beanies on our heads and the horizon around our ears.??? Through the journey into the adult word that these two characters take they are given opportunity to learn about the amount of work it takes to survive in the world. It is clearly evident that this journey provided numerous opportunities for growth and learning.

The movie ???Gran Torino??™ by Clint Eastwood??™s is a spiritual journey after his wife dies who he had been with for 50 years. Through the movie we learn that Walt despises his children and doesn??™t like them much as people, he didn??™t like his grandchildren who were just waiting for him to pass away so they could get his Gran Torino. Walt lets Thao work for him even tho it??™s against his wishes. Then he starts to notice that Thao is not just the gook who tried to steal his Gran Torino he is a boy who is a lost soul and been through hardship as well. Throughout his spiritual journey he was able to gain a relationship that was better then the one he had with his own children.

Through the movie you discover that Walt is carrying burdens, also he knows a lot more about death then he does life. When Walt is talking to Father Janovich Walt tell him ???It??™s not what you were ordered to do, but what you weren??™t ordered to do that haunts you the most.??? He starts to feel his old age but doesn??™t want to show it until Thao makes him take the lighter side on things. Walt heaps Thao get a job and helps him with the tools he needs as if its his son as he didn??™t get the chance to do that with his children.

After finding where the gang lives that hurt his neighbours physically and emotionally, Father Janovich go??™s to talk to Walt After the incident and Walt tells him ???Thao and Sue will never going to find peace in this world with this gang around???. Walt doesn??™t have a confession until the end of the movie this is so he can leave his burdens behind and be at peace. It??™s clear that Walt wanted the best life for Thao and Sue after giving his life to put the gang in gaol and for them to find peace.

In conclusion it can be seen that journeys offer a great number of opportunities. These can be opportunities for discovering appreciation, knowledge, self discovery and understanding of the world and its inhabitants, among others. In both Tim Wintons ???Big World??™ and Clint Eastwood??™s movie ???Gran Torino??™, the characters embark on physical, emotional and spiritual journeys and through these are given opportunities to develop as explained above. Through a physical journey and a journey of emotional development Biggie and the Narrator in ???Big World??™ gain a new appreciation for the life they could have. ???Gran Torino??™ makes the point that life is a journey and its travellers are given opportunities to learn about life and death. In ???Big World??™ the two central characters are able to learn more about themselves through a physical journey. Biggie and the Narrator in ???Big World??™ text are given an opportunity to learn about the world around them and the amount of work required to survive in it, through the physical journey of leaving school. It has been observed that journeys provide a great number of opportunities.

Big Shorts Michael Lewis Exposes Wall Street


Michael Lewis is an American contemporary non-fiction author and financial journalist. He was once called the ???wonder boy??? of Wall Street, in a Michael Fox ???The Secret of My Success??? kind of way. Lewis has estimated that he sold ???some millions??? of books writing tell-alls about the machinery and mechanics of the financial collapse of Wall Street, which was dubbed ???the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression.???

Raised in New Orleans to a corporate lawyer dad and community activist mother, Lewis was a Princeton graduate with no financial experience whatsoever when he landed a job at Salomon Brothers, which had previously turned him down for a job, while in London. The story goes that an English cousin manipulated a banquet seat for him next to the wife of a managing partner of the capitalist firm, who then persuaded her husband to set up an interview for him. The rest is his story.

After training in New York, Lewis returned to London and was literally ???handed,??? according to him, several multi-million dollar accounts with the Salomon Brothers to manage, though he had no money management skill of the magnitude that he was entrusted with. However inexperienced, he managed to succeed and go over the top, but became disillusioned in the ways of Wall Street finances when he realized that the industry was building a new set of bargaining chips that included cheating the poor and middle classes out of every dime for which they worked and saved.

As simple as that sounds, the machine behind it was only easy when it came to the investing insiders who knew the game, how to play it and had the money to play with. Lewis was one of the early whistle-blowers who saw the collapse coming, but who was also put outside the Wall Street circles and essentially ignored until all of the dominoes started to fall, one square at a time ??¦ and the largest collapse began with the investment bankers for Citigroup, formerly called Salomon Smith Barney.

In his books, the one in this review and in ???Liars Poker,??? Lewis details the intricate events and the players, who were not as sophisticated in finances as the average consumer is led to believe, that led to the credit default swaps and paid-for Moodys insurance ratings that brought the subprime lending market to its knees and subsequently threatened the lives and livelihoods of millions of people, nearly putting a huge portion of Americas middle class out in the streets and back in the soup kitchens of the 1920s.

Lewis is the father of two daughters and one son and currently lives in semi-seclusion somewhere in Berkeley, California, with his third wife, former MTV reporter Tabitha Soren. He is known to the Wall Street financiers as a traitor for going public and documenting much of the information that we now know as the truth about Wall Street.


I chose this book and this author, because when it comes to financial management, the thirty years between 1980 and 2010 will be the biggest story of the next century, unless something equally as bad or worse happens before 2100. None of us will be around by then, but we can document now that we lived through this era of financial collapse, threats and doom to the ???rich mans game??? on Wall Street, New York; and the second worst economic crises in America since the Great Depression of the 1920s. A tight recession was created during the 1980s by the trickle-down politics of the Reagan administration, but nothing half as bad as the Bush-era economic policies that sent Americas spending deficit skyrocketing from the billions to the trillions in zero to sixty.

The subprime lending market for homeownership was not really a market, but a lose-lose proposition from the moment it was conceived. According to Lewis, the reason it was created was because someone decided they should hedge their bets, not for the lower and moderate-income people who borrowed money for homes, but against them. It appears that the creative financing schtick was based on making money betting that the average homeowner would not keep their house for more than two to seven years before they would be hit by a foreclosure.

In other words, to hear Lewis tell it, it was set up for default mortgage servicing, where the ???real??? money was. Prices were then set to make sure that the homeowner would never own the home, simply because the investors made more money re-selling the same home over and over again than it did assisting borrowers with becoming true credit-worthy landowners. If a home was meant to be an inheritance for future generations and something to be leveraged to build a business or pay off escalating debts in case of emergencies, this market, in Lewis estimation, was set up to make certain that never happened; and that those who were trying to get on their feet financially never got to even sit up straight.

It was the biggest shift of credit and cash and economic resources to a lop-sided and way off-balance richest one-percent of this nation that America had ever seen, and hopefully ever will again.


As this book report is written, there is in current events, a rising feeling of ill-will toward not only Wall Street, but to the banking and insurance industries at-large, who spent what some will say is the last thirty years beating Americas middle class out of its rights, its inheritance, and its future, only to watch itself fall as a result. Others may say that the crashers have made even more financial gains by cashing out, or shorting, Americas middle class, because it was designed to crash. Those who were managing the money didnt appear to stop and think that the people they were trying to hurt most would be their own downfall. According to Lewis the cult phenomena amongst the investors, lenders and insurers was ???eff the poor.??? Well, unfortunately for most of us, the poor are so intricately connected to the middle class that it ended up affecting them the most. The poor will remain with us always, and it will always be our responsibility as global captains to champion their causes and they will always be cared for; however, the middle class, already strained with over-burdened debts, daily struggles, the trials of tribulations of keeping their head above water, were also the main caretakers of their poorer relatives and fellow citizens while scuffling toward the ???top.??? Were almost ???there.??? [where] So the current, and passing, economic crises hit the middle class the hardest.

There is heated argument and debate that the middle class victimized itself and caused its own demise, or near-demise. Some say it was because of the desperate want and need in Maslows Hierarchy of something that it could not truly afford ??“ nice homes, big cars, fancy showboat credit cards and plenty of bling ??“ modeled after the big-timers who were on hefty Hollywood salaries, on the payrolls of team sports owners who called a million dollars ???spare change,??? and at the behest of tons of network marketing companies and motivational speakers and ???dreamers??? and keepers of ???The Secret??? laws of attraction who promised the average everyday person that, for $19.95 or $199.95 or $1,995.95 or $9,995.95 a pop, or for a pretty sizable donation, they could make their wildest and most envy-ridden dreams of living like Donald Trump or Bill Gates, or even the late great Michael Jackson, come true. The problem came in, some say, when the average person didnt bother to learn a lesson that their, and our, ancestors already knew. Riches come to us in only four ways, inheritance, marriage, leverage of something more valuable than the money itself, or by lottery winnings-what we may refer to as pure ???dumb luck.??? Everything before, after and in-between is a matter of industriousness.

Others will say that because ???poor??? America was victimized by Wall Street moguls, it flushed the armor-bearers in middle class America right along with it. Either way, it appears that the boot-strapping theories and trickle-down beliefs of the principals of finances and economics in the eighties were way off target and essentially proven dead wrong. In Lewis book, he makes it clear that the game wasnt meant to be won by the average everyday working Joe or Jane Blow; it was meant only to clean the ???poor??? out of house, home, and closet; so that a finger of blame could be pointed at them and the words, essentially, ???see we told you theyre all a bunch of deadbeats who dont pay their bills??? could be used to justify and form a basis for ill treatment of the poorer classes in the years and decades to come.

Fortunately for most of us, Lewis was placed into Wall Street in his position, not to become ???richer than God,??? but for the purpose of exposing the subprime lending market for exactly what it was and what it ultimately became-the Liars Poker. There were many, he said and I paraphrase, that saw it coming, but turned a blind eye to it because of the money they stood to make to keep it quiet.

Between credit default swaps, mortgage bond trading (which was created literally ???out of the sky blue thin air,??? Standard & Poors and Moodys being paid to A-rate sufficiently D-rated bonds, and ill-fated CDOs (asset-backed securities known as ???collateralized debt obligations???), nobody stood to lose more than a single person or couple who signed their name(s) and their future income(s) over to a 30-year mortgage for a home that was, realistically, paid in full within less than ten years. That marked the beginning of how an $80,000 home would end up costing the average buyer more than a million dollars if they could manage to stay afloat economically for that long a period without failure or shortcomings or financial loss; and the insurers and investors and bankers/lenders were betting they would not.

In movieland, it could be called a ???Trading Spaces??? type of venture where two or more old coots with nothing better to do with their time set out to prove the scientific theory behind nature versus nurture. In the movie, Mortimer and Randolph bet one dollar. In real life, Wall Street bet against the lives of the USAs hardest-working citizens, then sweetened the pot by moving the bulk of Americas jobs to mostly Asian countries while sitting back to watch the carefully-supervised fallout. What they didnt bet on was the huge citizens backlash that ushered former United States Senator Barack H. Obama into office as President of the United States in 2008, and thats where the long-tarnished plot began to unravel.

???When the crash of the U.S. stock market became public knowledge in the fall of 2008, it was already old news.??? These are the words imprinted on the back of ???The Big Short.???

Justification for Opinion

In my opinion, there isnt going to be much that President Obama can do to right the wrongs or serve justice on the financial wrong-doers in four years in office, or even if he is re-elected in 2012, for the next four afterward. However, as this book report is written, major protests are going on all over the nation that are proving out the truth behind the words ???There is no such thing as too big to fail.???

Many of the Wall Street entities that were the major players in the 1980s Money Game of the Century have already come to a complete halt or have been forced to disassociate themselves with the big financial names that bring rage or indignant glances from the average American consumer, and many more are toppling even as we speak. There has been a large public outcry for economic justice against Wall Street, against insurers such as AIG, and against banks and consumer lenders, such as the now-defunct Household Finance and Countrywide. Only time will tell if the major banks still standing that are not community, home and credit-union driven will be driven as far out of town as the s&ls (savings & loan associations) of the mid-80s and 90s, but according to Lewis interview with Steve Eisman, ???theres no limit to the risk in the market??¦a bank with a market capitalization of one billion dollars might have one trillion dollars worth of credit default swaps outstanding…???

Quote: It [is] no longer the social and economic relevance of a bank [rendered] ???too big to fail,??? but the number of side bets that had been made upon it. – Michael Lewis

Lewis, Michael. (2010) “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.” WW Norton & Company, Inc., New York

Ethos, Pathos, Etc.

Slogan Standoff
From New York to Georgia, letters were exchanged between Ira C. Herbert, representing Coca-Cola, and Richard W. Seaver, representing Grove Press. The slogan, ???It??™s the real thing???, was being used by the two companies in 1969-1970 for advertisement of their products to the public. Herbert was the first to write, asking Seaver to discontinue his usage of this slogan. He made several true and influential statements in hope that Seaver would concede and begin using another slogan. In Seaver??™s reply, he held firm to his position and refused to surrender. Both men made use of rhetorical themes; however, one man was much more successful in utilizing these themes.
The element that is dealt with when making the connection between speaker and subject is logos. Logos includes appeal to reason, support, and dealing with a counterargument. Herbert appeals to logos when he says ?????™It??™s the real thing??™ was first used in advertising for Coca-Cola over twenty-seven years ago to refer to our product.??? He uses facts to support and strengthen his argument, attempting to convey that his company has priority. Herbert uses the same approach, almost repeating himself in greater detail, in lines nineteen through twenty-three. The finest example of appeal to logos, however, is in Seaver??™s letter when he concedes sarcastically, and continues to disassemble Herbert??™s argument further with a refutation. Seaver says, ?????¦I can fully understand that the public might be confused by our use of the expression, and mistake a book by a Harlem schoolteacher for a six-pack of Coca-Cola.??? This bizarre remark is a clear use of sarcasm and makes Herbert look ridiculous. The refutation that follows in lines thirty through thirty-two states that Seaver does not plan on ceasing usage of the slogan ???It??™s the real thing.??? They stick up for their First Amendment rights and ???will defend to the death your right to use ??™It??™s the real thing??™ in any advertisement you care to??? (???you??? referring to Coca-Cola). When it comes to appeal to logos, Seaver seems to come out ahead.
Appeal to pathos, however, could have a different turnout. Pathos is a theme dealt with when the subject is presented to the audience. This involves emotion in great deal, along with tone in some situations. Herbert takes the course of attempting to win over his audience by charming and being overly kind to Seaver. Herbert comments on the success of Grove Press in line eleven when he calls them a ???prominent??? company. Herbert also attempts to flatter his audience in lines twenty-three through twenty-five when he conveys concern about taking Seaver??™s time. The last two lines are an attempt by Herbert to bully Seaver into thinking he has no chance of holding onto his usage of the slogan. He writes that Coca-Cola ???appreciate[s] your cooperation and you assurance that you will discontinue the use of ???It??™s the real thing.??™??? Still tightly gripping his First Amendment rights, however, is Seaver. He makes his case stronger with his extreme use of sarcasm. Seaver??™s sarcastic tone all throughout his letter tears apart his opponent??™s argument and shows how ridiculous the suggestion was in the first place. For example, in lines fourteen through sixteen, Seaver uses the other side of the proposed situation to explain how with negative association comes the positive. Seeing how ridiculous the positive association sounds shows that the negative is just as absurd.
Positive association is exactly what a speaker tries to establish when making use of ethos. To successfully apply ethos in rhetoric, the speaker must communicate credibility, reputation, and image to his audience. Herbert spends his entire fourth paragraph on proving his credibility and reputation by using many facts and showing Coca-Cola??™s success with examples. He also attempts to identify with the audience in his third paragraph (lines eight through thirteen) by trying to convince Seaver that it may harm Grove Press??™s business by being associated with Coca-Cola. He says, ???There will always be likelihood of confusion as to the source or sponsorship of the goods…??? which is quite a stretch. What he is really saying is that association with Grove Press is not welcome at the Coca-Cola Company. The image of both letters is set up to be very professional, which creates credibility as well. In Seaver??™s letter, he shows examples of companies that have published titles similar to books Grove Press has printed. Yet, Grove Press didn??™t complain about that. This establishes credibility because it makes their company seem confident in their products. Through his sarcasm, Seaver yet again shows that he is confident and will not give in. It seems as though, despite Seaver??™s attempts, Herbert??™s use of ethos is superior.
Use of all three elements of rhetoric makes both letters convincing. A perfect mixture of the three elements and their components, however, make Seaver??™s letter more persuasive. Rhetoric is a tricky element to master, and it is possible that it has never been done; however, some have come close. Seaver is straight to the point about what he wants. When it comes to utilizing rhetoric, Herbert does not out-perform Seaver; one man had to surpass the other. Coca-Cola might just have to be eternally connected with Grove Press after all.

Big Foot Really Does Exist

Cindy Jones
June 23, 2010
Big Foot Really Does Exist
This is a true story about events that happened to my family in my home state of Texas with an elusive creature. It has been named Big Foot or Sasquatch. Sightings have been found in Texas; scientists believe that the biggest colonies exist there. Memories of these sightings have left deep impressions of fear for some of my family members. However, some of us had been fascinated by the creature.
In the spring of 1983, my husband and I had purchased a two acre lot deep in the piney woods, also called the Big Thicket, located in Pumpkin ,Texas. There was a shell house with wooden shingles and a tin roof located on the property. In the evenings my husband Terry would go to work on the house. Because there had not been electricity on the property, he brought out a generator for power. Eric, our eight year old son, traveled with his dad to work on the house. Later as night arrived, Eric had become tired and he decided to go out to the truck to take a nap. Suddenly, the truck begun to shake and he looked up at the driver??™s side window to see a hairy face staring back at him. His dad usually stored a pistol under the seat, but Eric could not find it. Terry realized that his son was not in the house, so he went outside to find Eric jumping back and forth in the seat of the truck. Terrified, Eric told his dad what had happened. My husband grabbed his hammer and went into the woods looking for whatever scared his son. There was a pole barn next to the house with old appliances under it. As Terry
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came out of the woods he noticed a very large shadowy figure. It was so large that it over shadowed one of the appliances under the barn. As Terry approached the pole barn, the shadowy figure moved towards the woods. When they arrived home, I noticed a strong musty odor on them and my son looked white as a ghost.
We had moved in our new home June of 1983. There were no more unusual appearances that year. One night in the spring of 1984, my husband had stayed up in the night to fix his truck. Suddenly, he had a feeling that something had been watching him. Pointing his head light toward the lower part of the driveway, he discovered a large animal was sitting there and watching him. Terry tried to catch the reflection of its eyes, animals usually reflect different color in their eyes, but the animal had closed its eyes. This was an animal that Terry had not seen in the past and realized he had come in contact with a Big Foot. They both stared at each other for twenty minutes or longer. When Big Foot got up, Terry watched as the creature walked over the bobbed wired fence back into the woods.
Two years later my family prepared to move to Virginia. We were outside visiting with a friend, Mr. Brown, and suddenly our two dogs started barking towards the back of the house into the woods. I walked over and heard something big growling from the woods. My husband and Mr. Brown followed the dogs towards the back of the house and observed something big running through the woods. Mr. Brown ran around the front of the house, but to his amazement Big Foot jumped out of the woods running towards him. Surprised, he made an about face and ran back swiftly towards the house. I had walked back into the house so I missed
Jones 3
the excitement. Mr. Brown thought we were crazy to believe that Big Foot was real. The experience had made him a believer.
I am sure you think that my family is crazy, but cable TV has produced a documentary about the exploration of Big Foot in my old back yard (Pumpkin, Texas). Life sometimes reveals a special event we have no control over it. Can you open up your mind to the possibility that Big Foot exist Just because you have not seen it, does not mean it does not exist. Be careful what you go searching for, it might find you.

Ethos, Logos and Pathos

The Art of Writing for a Sport
Paintball; Promoter of Violence or Healthy Fun by Ross Taylor, is a paper where a student decided to touch the topic of how people interpret paintball as a violent unethical sport and how he wanted to help his audience understand the truth behind the fun, athletic and mentally challenging sport. In my attempt to understand Taylors work, I will break up his writing into Logos, Ethos and Pathos.
Logos being the appeal to reason, Taylor uses this to his advantage by demonstrating it throughout his paper. When Taylor first begins by explaining the reasons of the common belief that paintball is a promoter of violence and dangerous sport, he goes into how he believes it is misunderstood and that the game is fun, mentally challenging, and builds teamwork. He includes this into his paper to clarify his reasons behind promoting paintball. He goes on to explain each aspect he had mentioned by giving proper evidence to support his views. Like when he disguises paintball as an athletic sport he states that “During the game, players execute numerous strategic moves to gain a tactical advantage, often including quick jumps, dives, rolls, and runs.” To continue to support his argument, Taylor mentions the article about eye injuries. Paintball can be violent and can cause such injuries if not played with proper safety precautions. He mentions the counter argument about violent injuries in order to justify his thought properly. Finally when Taylor begins to explain how people interpret paintball as a promoter of violence he counter attacks that with the fact that there is nothing proven that this sport influences teenagers into committing violent dangerous acts.
Ethos is the appeal to the character of the speaker/writer. Taylor demonstrates ethos when he begins his paper and places the audience in the middle of a paintball game. By doing this the reader builds confidence in Taylors knowledge on the sport. By going through different rules and regulations, the reader cannot help but have faith in what they are reading. In his attempt to use ethos in different ways, Taylor goes on in showing fairness to the common belief stating their reasons first and following them with him agreeing but to only the extend of stating obvious points. Like with injuries he gives the example of his friend who pointed the barrel of his paintball gun into his face and it went off and caused him to lose his eye. When accidents like these happen it is the cause of not using proper safety measures. If Taylors friend were to have been wearing the proper safety equipment he would still have his eye today. Injuries in paintball are often caused by the players being reckless.
Pathos, the appeal to sympathies, values, beliefs and emotions of the audience. An excellent way Taylor wrote in term of pathos was when he placed the reader in his shoes. By taking this approach the audience was able to feel like they were playing and truly grasp a feel of paintball for what it is. Taylor showed his reader the feelings and rush the sport gives him and how passionate he is about it. He also took a very interesting approach when he tells the reader that paintball can be for any size, shape, or age. The gives Taylor a positive feel, when enlighting the audience that no person is to skinner or to fat, to short or to tall, and to young or to old, shows that paintball was made with the intention for all to enjoy. When Taylor finally states “Also families like to play together” shows is emotional side where he also concerns himself about the importance of family time.
Whether youre a weekend paintball warrior or a conservative mother of three, after reading Taylors argument, you gain a complete better understanding of the sport and are able to view it with the respect of any other sport. Using Logos, Ethos, and Pathos he was able to persuade his audience to look at paintball as a healthy fun sport.

Big Fish and Ziba Came on a Boat

The film ???Big Fish??™ provides a surreal reality that is ultimately a poignant tale. Directed by Tim Burton, the film relates to journeys as the main character Edward Bloom portrays imaginative journeys as the man of tale tales, while Will represent inner journeys when he realises that truth in those tales are limited. In the opening scene, the fish pioneers as the main topic of the film and the importance of the metaphoric connection is highlighted. As father and son, Edward and Will are the heroic archetypical characters that represent the hero??™s journeys. The picture book ???Ziba came on a boat??? by Liz Lofthouse, concerns the physical and emotional journey to escape war torn tyranny for freedom. The perspective form a young girl is used in certain effects to convey how crucial the journey is for Ziba. Both those texts ???Big Fish??? and ???Ziba came on a boat??? relates to journeys in many ways through interpretation of the content.
In the opening scene, underwater images and the music of stringed instruments, adds a sense of tranquillity and magic to the film. A narrator introduces the film, with a southern accent and though the depth of the voice changes, the same tone is carried. At the same time the camera movements follows a fish navigating through hooks and traps. Metaphorically, the symbol of the fish conveys a connection with Edward Bloom, ???as it just been touched with something extra???. The techniques used in ???Ziba came on a boat??? illustrate the different types of journeys. Present tense is used in the physical journey while past tense is used for the emotional journey. On the cover, both these journeys are morphed together.
In a flashback Edward recounts entering Spectre. A world full of warmth and light, the slightly blurred focus and the close up shot of their feet, reveals the absence of shoes. It is a connotation towards the high level of safety within the town. The visual also convey the protagonist??™s small town perspective of the world and by the sound of the name ???Bloom??™, it is a pun, to suggest the peak in he??™s life of many hopes and dreams, but he soon crosses this peaceful threshold. As mentioned before Spectre represents Edward??™s perception, so as Edward becomes more exposed to the unsympathetic reality of life, so did Spectre when he returned to an abandon town. Edward??™s return signifies the cyclic pace of the hero??™s journey, which is similar to Ziba??™s progress as her boat ???rose and fell … on the endless sea???. By crossing her own threshold, Ziba enters another world of warm and familiar memories framed by close up images to present a close value to her.
With two main characters, Edward retells his imaginative journeys, while Will attempts to reconcile with his father for the truth. However as the world appears as tales through Edward??™s eyes, as he spent a lifetime twisting the adventures he encounters. Therefore to announce the truth would be against Edward??™s belief. Compared to Ziba migrating, she intentionally left based on her free will, due to war and hopes to live a better. The point is both Edward and Ziba chose a journey based on what was best for them.
Relating towards the hero??™s journey and to the philosophy of existentialism, the audience could easily speculate on the death of Edward Bloom and Ziba??™s arrival to a new land. As both their journeys had been approached and had overcome the obstacles, they are able to continue their life in one way or another. Thank you.

Ethology and Training of Elephants

A review on the ethology, behaviour and training of a captive animal

BSc Zoo Animal Management Year 2
Word count: 2554 (not including table)


Summary | 3 |
Introduction | 4 |
Ethology and Behaviour in the Wild | 4 |
Training in Captivity | 6 |
Conclusion | 11 |
References | 12 |
Bibliography | 13 |

Elephant training is important within the zoo environment, as it aids in the husbandry regime, any medical and veterinary treatment and any daily health care, such as foot treatment for elephants. For successful training, you need to know how animals learn; this is usually through having a positive/neutral relationship with the animal and to use positive reinforcement training; and to give the animal something it desires such as food or something as simple as praise or attention from the keeper. The most frequent used methods to train animals in zoos are based on operant conditioning techniques; simply reinforcing a behaviour will increase the likelihood that it will occur again in the future (Hosey et al, 2009). The other type of method of training is known as classical conditioning; which is learning by the association of 2 or more stimuli which the animal has no control over the events.

Elephants have been trained by humans for many of years, even before zoos where established. However recently in the past 40 years hands on contact with animals were kept to a minimum, except for elephants and some marine mammals. ???The specifics of how an elephant is trained depend upon the sex, species, and individual personality of the elephant. Many trainers feel that African elephants, Loxodonta africana, are more difficult to train that Asian elephants, Elephas maximus, because of their more ???excitable??? nature??™ (Mellen J & Ellis S, 1996). Within elephant training, an elephant hook can be used to control, prod, signal, direct and / or to punish the elephant. Elephants are known to be clever animals and are able to remember events from the past; also elephant are able to learn from each other by observing another elephant, this is usually young elephants watching older, mature elephants eat in the wild so that the younger elephant knows what to eat and how.
Ethology and Wild Behaviour:
Fig.1. Asian Elephant Range (National Geographic, 2009)
Ethology is the known as the study of behaviour in the animal??™s natural environment. Elephants rarely forage in one area for more than a few days in a row (Ciszek D, 1999). The Asian elephants which inhabit the forest areas seek out shade to stay cool especially around midday, as Asian elephants are unable to cope with draughts and need constant access to permanent water sources unlike their African species. Asian elephants need a good source of food and water and with the forest having a more concentrated source than that of where African elephants inhabit, the Asian elephants have smaller ranges which can vary in size from 60 to 230 square miles. However, the population sizes of the Asian elephant are in decline due to habitat destruction, poaching and the increase in the human population.

In the wild Asian elephants are social animals which live in groups; known as herds, the size of a herd can vary from a small group to a large group. However the social lives of a male and a female elephant are completely different. Female elephants have strong bonds and live in matriarchal families; these families consist of mothers, grandmothers, sisters, aunts and their offspring. Male elephants occasionally would join a group of females, but normally male elephants are solitary or have a male only group. However ???social behaviour of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) is not well understood in the absence of long-term studies of identified individuals. Adult Asian elephant females and their young of both sexes form matriarchal groups with pubertal males dispersing from natal groups, but whether these social groups represent families and males show locational or social dispersal is unknown??™ (Sukumar V.R, 2005). Asian elephants are mainly active around dusk, throughout the night until dawn. Asian elephants will travel far to find nutritious food and for a good water source within their habitat range; their diet consists of: soft grasses, banana stems, fruits and bark of latex producing trees. These elephants will forage during the cooler parts of the day and would then rest in the shade in the hotter times of the day. ???Asian elephants talk to each other by touch, sound, scent, and body language… Elephants also use a broad range of sounds to communicate, like trumpeting as a warning or greeting to other elephants nearby. They also produce low-frequency rumbling sounds, which can travel over great distances, reaching the ears of elephants several kilometres away. Elephants also communicate with infrasound, sounds inaudible to human ears??™ (Asian Elephant, 2010). An elephant??™s natural behaviour can either be a proximate explanation; meaning that the behaviour is triggered by a stimuli or a ultimate explanation; meaning that the behaviour is based on evolution, where the behavioural traits are genetic. Example behaviours of these explanations are:
Proximate: Self-grooming for young elephants is triggered by watching the adults using their trunks to spray water over themselves or to use their trunk to pick up soil to throw over the body.
Ultimate: Female Asian elephants mainly stay in herds as big families descending from grandmother to granddaughter, where as male Asian elephants will break away from the herd at a certain age either with another male or on its own and they will then go and find another herd to breed with.

Training in Captivity:
The training of Asian elephants in captivity is very important for the elephant as well as for the keepers. New training and handling sessions for the elephants is a main result of public pressure and is to prevent any accidents occurring and to improve the keeping conditions of the elephants. Tools in training include the ankus (elephant hook), vocal commands, Bridging; which is a signal used to notify the elephant that the behaviour performed was correct and a whistle/clicker. A bridge is also a stimulus that is connected with a primary reinforcer; food, through classical conditioning (learning by association of 2 or more stimuli). There are 4 types of contact training with elephants:
-Free contact/Hands on: direct handling of an elephant with a keeper within the same space.
-Protected handling: the handling of the elephant with a keeper when they do not share that space between them
-Confined contact: Handling of an elephant through a protective barrier where the elephant is spatially confined (Schmid J, 1998)
-No contact/Hands off: there is no contact when handling an elephant, unless the elephant is under sedation.

Free contact with elephants is a common management system in a majority of zoo across the world. Free contact is considered to be a traditional method of training which evolved from elephant management techniques used with the Asian species for about the past 5000 years (Guerrero D, 1997). With free contact, the elephant keeper must have sufficient training and an excellent understanding of elephant behaviour, handling and training methods. Also there should be a good relationship between the keeper/s and the elephant to gain successful training and handling. Elephants in captivity need a good skin care regime in place and this is only possible with the elephants having contact with the keepers in a free contact management system. Within the free contact management systems elephants are trained to put their foot onto a pedestal enabling the keeper to carry out the necessary foot treatments, also keepers can trained the elephants to become used to routine medical treatments such as the taking of blood or examining the teeth, all without causing stress towards the elephants. In free contact systems the keepers can lead the integration and prevent fights and injury to the animals (Schmid J, 1998). With training elephants for handling has its advantages, training can also be used to stimulate the animal mentally and physically. In zoos having a free contact management system allows them to keep a lot of animals within a restricted space and also because many zoos are unable to expand their elephant houses, the free contact management system is the only real practical solution. The training sessions can also be shown to the public giving them an educational experience and increase the public??™s interest towards the elephants. However this could also be a disadvantage, if the public would rather see the typical natural behaviour of the elephants when in its enclosure without the contact with the keeper. Overall with a free contact management system there is one major disadvantage which is having qualified elephant keeper staff; good elephant keepers are rare (Schmid J, 1998) and with not having good qualified staff can lead to accidents and bad publicity for the zoo.

Protected contact and confined contact is where training sessions between keeper and elephant happen through a protective barrier or with a restraint. ???Protected contact is defined as a system, where the handlers/keepers are not in the same enclosure as the elephant…separated by barriers??™ (Guerrero D, 1997). The skin care, foot treatment and medical treatment that are carried out within the free contact can still be done with protected contact and also decreases the risk of injury to the keeper. But handling through a protective barrier is only possible if the elephants are trained to obey adequate commands (Schmid J, 1998).
???There are eight elements that, when implemented, define Protected Contact (PC) with elephants:
1. Facility design orientated towards the goals of the elephant programme
2. Safety, which if approached correctly will in itself define the facility design
3. Clear behavioural goals, husbandry and medical, that implement elephant welfare
4. Training techniques with written protocols
5. The use of the trainer??™s body positioning and technique timing
6. Keeper training
7. Tools used to access the elephants
8. Documentation ??“ clearly written institutional and industry guides??™ (Roocroft A, 2009).
Within zoos facilities for elephants, their in-houses are designed pacifically for protected contact and for Asian elephants having a less flexible trunk; their behavioural access space can be wider than that of a wall space for an African elephant. The wall space must have clear visibility for both the elephant and the keeper, so that for successful training the elephant must be able to see what the keeper is doing at all times. A training tool that can be used for protected contacts as well as free contact is ???the guide??™ or otherwise known as the ankus or bull hook, this is used as an extension of the keepers arm during training and also used as protection for the keeper but it is unacceptable to use the ankus as a punishment tool. When training an elephant in protected contact, there are five tools that can be used:
1. A target, which is a training support tool which is used in many animal training scenarios.
2. Having food rewards that the elephant desires
3. A food pouch to hold the rewards
4. Body language towards the elephant
5. The wall design, which is the most important

The keepers training the elephants through protected contact still require qualifications and adequate training and successful training of any elephant requires on the availability of good elephant trainers. Therefore within training there are three questions that can divide your programme of training:
1. What can you achieve through protected contact training
2. What do you do in an elephant restraint chute
3. What requires standing sedation or total immobilization
Elephant Restraint Chute (ERC) is generally used when an elephants needs to stand completely still for minor invasive procedures such as injections, biopsies or wound treatment (Roocroft A, 2009). An example of protected training of Asian elephants that has taken place is at Chester Zoo, ???Chester Zoo was the first institution in Europe to build a completely specially designed safety wall so that they could perform PC training on a routine basis with their very large Asian breeding bull, Chang …. As the elephant program at Chester matures, which for any institution is an ongoing process, comprehensive husbandry access to all elephants becomes the top priority, along with safety and communication??™ (Roocroft A, 2007). Overall for protected training and confined contact, the main disadvantage relating to this system is down to welfare.

No contact or otherwise known as Hands off is where there is no contact between the keeper and the elephants. Within no contact systems, there must be adequate enrichment items for the elephants and there should be enrichment in place for skin care, due to the keepers providing skin care for the elephants in not possible and the same goes to foot care; as the treatment cannot be carried out so the necessary wearing out of the elephants soles and nails must take place in the natural way by movement. However in some cases human intervention is necessary for foot care and medical treatment, but these procedures will have to involve the elephant being under anaesthetic; which can be very risky for the elephant. An anaesthetised elephant lying down in sterna recumbency can suffer progressive respiratory impairment due to the animal??™s weight on the sternum and diaphragm, which limits the air exchange (Bush M, 1996). In a no contact management system there is a precaution of keeping a well socialised group of elephants and has an advantage of keeping the elephants under nearly natural conditions. Therefore the social needs would be keeping the elephants in family groups, just like in the wild. For the keeper, the risk of being injured or killed by an elephant would be minimised (Schmid J, 1998), so having special qualifications to become an elephant keeper would not be necessary in this case. The major disadvantage for zoos financially to develop and construct an adequate indoor and outdoor enclosure to keep the elephants in, if the zoo decided on a no contact system, and both enclosures would have to have enough space to meet the animal??™s requirements.

Table 1: Characteristics of the different elephant keeping systems (Schmid J, 1998)
(+ = take place or necessary; +- = possible; – = unnecessary or impossible)
| Free Contact | No Contact | Protected Contact | Confined Contact |
Enclosure | | | | |
Enrichments for: | | | | |
-Physical and mental occupation | +- | + | + | + |
-Skin care | +- | + | +- | +- |
-Wearing down of feet | +- | + | +- | +- |
Separate keeping of bulls | + | +- | +- | +- |
Shackled keeping | + | – | – | – |
Restraining chute | – | – | – | + |
Handling | | | | |
Training | + | – | + | – |
High risks of accidents | + | – | – | – |
Treatment without anaesthesia | + | – | + | + |
Intervention in social conflicts | + | – | – | – |
Visitors | | | | |
Direct contact with the animals | + | – | – | – |
Observation of species-typical behaviour | +- | + | + | + |
Zoo Management | | | | |
High financial investment | – | + | +- | +- |
Qualified keeper | + | – | + | – |
Elephants | | | | |
Sufficient movement | + | – | – | – |
Variation and occupation | + | – | – | – |
Nearly natural group structure | – | + | + | + |
Main behavioural needs met | +- | + | +- | +- |

In any training with elephants whether its hand??™s on, protected or hand??™s off contact, positive reinforcement is important when the behaviour wanted is performed, whether this be food or praise. Within training an ankus or otherwise known as an elephant hook can be used to assist the keeper with training the elephant i.e. touching the elephant??™s leg with the hook to make the elephant lift up its leg. However, it may not be right to use the elephant hook as negative reinforcement due to elephants having an unpredictable and sometimes aggressive nature. Each contact management system has its disadvantages and advantages, whether it??™s relating to health and safety or to keeper training. Also these contact management systems mentioned, one may work in one zoo but may not in another. ???The safety of man and animal has to be the first principle, though there will always be some degree of risk in handling elephants, even in ???no contact??? systems, because no one can ever totally exclude human carelessness or risky behaviour??™ (Jorg Adler, H. 1996). The only major recommendation on a whole for elephant training, is to actually train the keepers on how to train elephants whether its hands on contact or protected, this is so training can be carried out safely and that the keeper knows what he/she is doing and that all the right behaviour is being taught.


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Big E Auto

Macroeconomic Measures of Output, Prices and their Justification in Planning
Big Drive Auto tracks vehicle unit sales and its own price index of vehicle sales prices with 2000 as the base year. Using Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), an aggregate demand and supply curve can be generated to determine vehicle pricing levels as well as supply levels of inventory. The Real GDP takes into account consumption, gross investments, government spending, exports, and imports. Specifically, the GDP subcategory of motor vehicle durable goods can be tracked and used for planning of staffing and prices.
Given that a large volume of vehicles are imported, this is important that imports are included in the GDP. Big Drive Auto needs to determine the mix of American and foreign autos and trucks to keep in inventory. The exchange rate and tariffs will also play a part in how much of the GDP is comprised of imports.
The Relationship between Big Drive Auto??™s Data and the Macroeconomic Measures
The output relationship between Big Drive Auto??™s vehicle sales can be compared to GDP by vehicle industry for the United States (Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2009). The Motor Vehicles Output chart below shows Big Auto vehicle sales trend with the United States GDP for Motor Vehicles over the same years of 1998 to 2007 (ibid).

The output relationship between Big Drive Auto??™s Index of Sales (base year = 2000) is compared to the United Stated GDP Price Index by motor vehicle industry in Motor Vehicle Price Index chart below. This chart shows that Big Drive Auto??™s real dollars, compared to year 2000, has remained constant from 1997 to 2007. The United States??™ real dollars, compared to year 2000, has trended downward at a large rate of change compared to Big Drive Auto. This indicates that compared to year 2000, the average price for motor vehicles has declined comparatively in the United States, although Big Drive Auto??™s prices have remained the same compared to year 2000.

3. Explain how specific planning and operating decisions at the organization can be improved using the macroeconomic data. JONATHAN
Obtaining Reliable Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables
In order for a company such as Big Drive Auto to be able to have reliable forecasts, they must review many of the key macroeconomic variables before they can determine what is most suitable and efficient in achieving their goals. These variables include the Consumer Price Index, the Per Capita Growth Rate, the nominal exchange rate, and the money market rate. By properly evaluating all these variables, a reliable forecast can be attained.
Dealing With Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Forecasts
With planning on how to deal with the uncertainties in the macroeconomic forecasts, Big Drive Auto should look into precedence from other companies and even their own past economic experiences. When there are uncertainties, there is no way of actually knowing how to deal with any crisis circumstances. There are three types of macroeconomic forecasting to handle these circumstances. One is event outcome forecasting, which tries to forecast the outcome of an uncertain event; time series forecasting, which uses past and present values of a variable to forecast its future value; and event timing, which attempts to determine when a particular event will occur. Big Auto Drive should use all three of these macroeconomic forecasting types to help them get through uncertainties.
6. How do business cycles affect the performances of Big Drive Auto What could the organization do to mitigate any undesirable effects of business cycles

The circled area is the time prior to the start of the last recession. Notice how there was a sharp decline in the growth rate for GDP. Look at 1994 and 1996. Both of these years gave a false signal. Most recessions have had false signals. Since inflation was reigned in during the early 1980??™s, Per Capita Real GDP growth has averaged about 2% per year. The current rate of 1.5% is certainly not excessive. The last two expansions have been about ten years in length. The current expansion is less than seven years old.

???Small fluctuations in the business cycle cause greater fluctuations in the car industry, although there will be other variables that also contribute??? (Miguel Angel Arino, Africa Arino, Roberto Garcia Castro, 2008).

7. Identify to what extent tariffs or quotas would affect international trade in your product MELISSA
8. How would you pay for imports, receive payment for exports, and manage exchange rate risk JONATHAN


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